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Graphical view of market positioning. The orange line is why its premature to call this the start of a new bull market. #federalreserve #inflation

One of the main reasons we upgraded US Stocks to a BUY and the $US to a sell on July 31. The market was priced for the Fed having to battle an unlikely inflation scenario. #FederalReserve #inflation

Particularly impressive and surprising because investors should be worried about Fed balance sheet reduction and should be wary of buying in front of Fed selling.


Morning Markets Brief

Summary and Price Action Rundown Global risk assets are mixed this morning as the ongoing US stock rally pauses to digest Fed communications ahead of more consequential earnings this week. S&P 500 futures are indicating a 0.2% lower open after the index rose 4.3% last week, building on monthly gains … Continue reading “Morning Markets Brief”

Five Minute Macro 8-9-2022

Elevated inflation levels remain the front and center following last week’s blowout jobs report. Currency markets continue to move on divergent central bank policies and geopolitical risks intensify around Taiwan. Finally, the Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act and sent it to the House for passage this week.


Afternoon Markets Brief

Summary and Price Action Rundown US equities retraced a modest bit of their recent rally as investors digested more Fed commentary and signs of intensifying growth fears in Treasury markets, while oil prices slid amid rising demand fears. The S&P 500 declined 0.3% today, deepening the index’s year-to-date loss to … Continue reading “Afternoon Markets Brief”

Looking Ahead – ’23 and Me

Looking Ahead – ‘23 and Me As we noted last week, our base case for topping inflation and slowing (but not crashing) growth with a downshifting Fed is the recipe for the second half 2022 rally. This week’s tantalizing bounce has us temped to upgrade stocks earlier than we feel … Continue reading “Looking Ahead – ’23 and Me”

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