Five Minute Macro 12-16-2019

#1 US-China Trade Détente / USMCA Resolution

Last Week: #2

  • After weeks of mixed messages from US and Chinese officials over the state of negotiations, both sides affirmed on Friday that a Phase One deal has been reached, although some final terms need to be rectified.
  • The US agreed to partial removal of existing tariffs on Chinese imports and cancellation of scheduled duty increases consumer-facing products. But the White House will retain some tariffs as leverage in the Phase Two talks, though investors suspect that no additional agreement is likely before the November 2020 elections. China agreed to some degree of increased US farm imports. Enforcement procedures are also said to be included, alongside intellectual property, structural reforms, and currency policy terms.
  • Also, Congress is expected to pass the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement this week.

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