Category: Five Minute Macro

The Biden Relief Bill remains front and center, while investors wait for the Fed on Wednesday and corporate earnings season continues. Finally, data continue to show the uneven effects of the pandemic and US-China tensions continue to percolate.

In this week’s Five Minute Macro, the Biden administration lays out a two-stage stimulus plan, while political tensions continue to simmer and Fed sends mixed policy signals. Meanwhile, US economic data continues to weaken and China tensions continue to percolate.

Political tension remains front and center, while increased odds of fiscal stimulus moves into the second spot and mixed Fed signals into third. Inflation expectations hit multi-year highs and China-US tensions continue to percolate.

Georgia runoff and vaccine rollout remain front and center for markets. The outlook for stimulus, OPEC and oil prices and the British Pound and UK lockdowns round out the top five.

Prospects brighten for a relief bill and Fed asset purchases in focus ahead of the meeting, while the Pound continues to fluctuate with no Brexit deal. Oil prices rally on OPEC+ accord and political uncertainty remains ahead of the Georgia runoff.

Odds for a new round of relief spending are rising and taking markets up with them. Meanwhile, Brexit drama continues with no deal in sight. Vaccine rollouts move down to the third spot and oil and OPEC drops to fourth after a successful meeting last week. Finally, Trump – China tensions are heating up.

In this week’s Five Minute Macro, global markets remain positive on a Yellen Treasury and continued positive vaccine news. New entrants at 3 and 4 are this week’s OPEC meeting and oil prices along with the Pound and Brexit deal, while US political uncertainty continues to easy.

Stimulus negotiations move back into the first spot as vaccine news moves down to second and political uncertainty moves into third. Brexit negotiations and the pound follows and emerging markets enter at the fifth spot.

This week positive vaccine news continues to drive market optimism, while political uncertainty falls as a normal transition looks likely. The White House turning up pressure on China moves up a spot and uncertainty about further stimulus moves down. Finally, Brexit negotiations enter the homestretch.

Vaccine news brightening the outlook and political uncertainty easing has driven risk markets significantly higher. Entering at the third spot is the odds of a stimulus, while China re-enters at four. Finally, oil prices rebound.