Author: marketsp

Summary and Price Action Rundown

Global risk assets are mixed this morning, amid relatively calmer price action, as investors ponder the degree to which even the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus deployed around the world over the past month can cushion the impact of the pandemic. S&P 500 futures are fluctuating moderately after last week’s rally of 10.3% brought year-to-date downside for the index to 21.3% and its decline from February’s record high to 25.0%. The extreme market volatility of the past few weeks has eased somewhat amid a confluence of supportive policy measures, including more aggressive Fed/global central bank accommodation and massive US fiscal stimulus. Nevertheless, grim infection and mortality totals and an extending timeline for social distancing measures is continuing to weigh on investor sentiment. EU and Asian equities were mostly lower overnight. EU sovereign bonds are choppy after last week’s rally, while Treasury yields continue to head lower, with the 10-year yield at 0.65%. The dollar is pausing its retreat from multi-year highs, while oil prices remain under severe pressure (more below).

Stimulus Efforts Continue as the Covid-19 Pandemic Batters the Global Economy

The US and China deployed high-profile support for their respective economies over the past few days, with President Trump signing the phase three coronavirus relief bill on Friday and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) adding liquidity on Sunday night, but uncertainty continues over the efficacy and sufficiency of the ongoing measures. The PBoC injected 50 billion renminbi into the banking system overnight at a rate of 2.2% versus the prior level of 2.4%, a larger reduction than the typical increment. The impact, however, was modest, with Chinese equities performing roughly in line with regional peers and the renminbi closing flat. This comes amid varied reports about secondary infection clusters in Asia weeks after the initial peak of contagion rates in some countries. The PBoC’s move followed last week’s finalization of the US $2.2 trillion phase three relief bill (CARES Act), which President Trump signed on Friday afternoon. The bill includes direct support for both households and companies, but the timeline for disbursement varies widely across the many segments and analysts are pondering the ability of different levels of government to translate the budget allocations into actual expenditures. Congressional leadership on both sides have informed their members that up to two more fiscal packages may be needed during the coming weeks of this pandemic. Speaker Pelosi said that she and her fellow members “know that we must do more.”

Systemic and Liquidity Strains Have Eased but Some Pockets of Stress Remain

Amid an interlocking liquidity crunch and a slower-moving but intensifying solvency crisis brought on by the pandemic, the Fed announced extensive new measures last week to provide both unprecedented liquidity and direct monetary support for the economy, with encouraging initial effects. The Fed is now buying Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in unlimited amounts in order to support smooth market functioning along with increasing purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities. However, Friday’s late session announcement that the Fed’s current $75 billion per day pace of Treasury purchases would be pared to $60 billion by the end of next week coincided with a selloff in risk assets. Also last week, the Fed created two facilities to support credit to large employers and established a third facility to provide a flow of funds to consumers and businesses, along with offering credit for municipalities, and will provide up to $300 billion in new financing for employers, consumers, and businesses. Investment grade credit rallied steadily throughout the week, and traders have noted some signs of better market functioning, and high yield debt improved after Monday, although both remain at stressed levels. Meanwhile, analysts are citing diminished evidence of strains in offshore dollar funding markets, while short-term funding (repo) and interbank markets similarly appear more orderly. Commercial paper markets, however, have remained under pressure as the Fed readies its support program.

Additional Themes

Oil Prices Sink Further – Even as US equities attempt to steady, Brent crude is extending last week’s steep losses to trade below $23 per barrel. Provisions for funding to top up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve never made it into the final pandemic relief bill, while the International Energy Agency described global oil demand as in “free fall” amid the pandemic. Reports show no end in sight for the Saudi versus Russia price war and suggest that President Trump is more focused on exceptionally low prices at the pump than the damage to the US shale patch.

EU Banks Hit by ECB Dividend Request – An index of EU bank stocks is down 5.0% this morning, dramatically underperforming the broader index, after the European Central Bank (ECB) asked the industry to withhold dividend payments and share buybacks until at least October. Meanwhile, market-based gauges of credit stress at EU banks are elevated but remain significantly below the crisis levels of 2011/12 amid aggressive ECB support.

Summary and Price Action Rundown

Global risk assets are retracing a portion of their three-day rally this morning as investors continue to await passage of the pandemic relief bill through the House of Representatives, while pondering the efficacy of even this forceful fiscal support amid a continued rise in Covid-19 infection rates. S&P 500 futures indicate a 1.9% loss at the open, which would partly retrace its three-day rally of 17.6%, which brought year-to-date downside to 18.6% and its decline from mid-February’s record high to 22.3%. The acute market volatility of the past few weeks has eased amid a confluence of supportive factors, including more aggressive Fed/global central bank accommodation, expectations of massive US fiscal stimulus, and hopes for decelerating contagion figures in Italy and New York (though recent new infection figures are less encouraging). Traders are also citing quarter-end rebalancing by large institutional investors as underpinning demand for US stocks over the past three days. EU and Asian equities were mixed overnight. EU sovereign bonds are choppy after yesterday’s rally, while Treasury yields continue to head lower, with the 10-year yield at 0.76%. The dollar is pausing its retreat from multi-year highs. Oil prices remain under pressure, with Brent crude around $26.

Congress Readies Massive US Fiscal Support as Investors Shift Their Focus to Execution

With the House set to pass the phase three coronavirus relief bill today or tomorrow, analysts continue to debate the degree to which this major US fiscal firepower can cushion the impact of the pandemic. Earlier this week, the Senate managed to pass the phase three relief bill (CARES Act) with unanimous consent and the House is poised to approve it over the coming day or two. The bill totals $2.2 trillion and includes direct support for households ($301 billion), expanded unemployment insurance ($250 billion), credit support to companies to backstop lending facilities by the Federal Reserve ($500 billion), concessionary loans to small businesses ($367 billion), money for hospitals and healthcare providers ($130 billion), emergency education and infrastructure finance ($55 billion), and agriculture assistance ($48 billion). The bill grants greater flexibility to banks in lending to small businesses as well as forbearance for holders of federally-backed mortgages through year-end in cases of pandemic-related financial hardship. The timeline for disbursement of the relief assistance varies widely across the many segments and analysts are pondering the ability of different levels of government to translate the budget allocations into actual expenditures. On one hand, Secretary Mnuchin indicated that direct deposits can be implemented for many individuals within weeks, whereas some businesses will not receive relief for months until they adjust for reduced payroll taxes. Congressional leadership on both sides have informed their members that up to two more fiscal packages may be needed during the coming weeks of this pandemic.
Investors Digest an Unprecedented Rise in US Unemployment Claims

Early data for March is revealing a dramatic economic deterioration around the globe, and yesterday morning’s release of last week’s new US unemployment filings showed a stunning increase. A record 3.28 million people registered for unemployment benefits in the week of March 15^th, surging from the 282,000 registering the week prior. This figure was not only a new historical peak but a multiple of previous highs in weekly seasonally adjusted unemployment surges such as in 1982 (695,000) and 2009 (665,000). This ends a decade of sustained job growth that saw US employers having added jobs for a consecutive 113 months. Due to the scope of the coronavirus impact, Congress is considering expanding unemployment benefits to contract workers and self-employed persons. It remains to be seen whether this spike in unemployment and subsequent response will resemble the 1980s surge and relatively quick recovery or the more drawn out jobless trends of 2008-09 and the 1930’s. Not all sectors are evenly hit; retail is seeking at least 500,000 new workers as demand exceeds production capacities. Next week’s data will provide more insight on the economic fallout (more below).

Additional Themes

Powell Reassures on Stimulus – Federal Reserve Chair Powell alluded to additional measures available to the Fed in providing targeted credit “where it should be offered but is not” in his remarks yesterday morning on the Today Show, stating that “we’re not going to run out of ammunition.” He noted the US economy “may well be in a recession” but suggested that there should be “a good rebound on the other side of that.”

Looking Ahead – Next week brings some additional key datapoints on how the pandemic and the accompanying public health responses are impacting the economy. March nonfarm payroll data, due next Friday, is forecast to be one of the worst readings on record, while more global purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for March are expected to reflect deepening contractions. Meanwhile, analysts await a decision from President Trump regarding his administration’s position on restarting portions of the economy amid questions about his authority to do so.

Summary and Price Action Rundown

Global risk assets are retracing a portion of their two-day rally even as Congress is set to pass forceful fiscal measures and the European Central Bank announced an upgrade to its forceful easing program, as investors brace for historically dire US economic data this morning. S&P 500 futures point to a 0.9% decline at the open, which would partly retrace its rally of 10.6% over the past two sessions that reduced year-to-date downside to 23.4% and the decline from mid-February’s record high to 26.9%. The acute market volatility of the past few weeks has eased somewhat amid a confluence of supportive factors, including more aggressive Fed accommodation, glimmers of hope from slightly decelerating contagion figures in Italy and New York, and expectations of massive US fiscal stimulus. EU and Asian equities were mostly lower overnight. In sympathy with EU sovereign bonds, which are rallying after the European Central Bank’s announcement overnight (more below), Treasury yields continue head lower, with the 10-year yield at 0.80%. Importantly, the dollar is extending it retreat from multi-year highs. Oil prices are fluctuating above last week’s nearly multi-decade lows, with Brent crude around $27.

Questions Turn to Efficacy and Sufficiency as Congress Lines Up Massive US Fiscal Support

Market sentiment remains cautious, even with bipartisan agreement in the Senate over the phase three coronavirus relief bill setting up passage in the House, as analysts ponder the degree to which even this major fiscal firepower can cushion the impact of the pandemic. Overnight, the Senate managed to pass the phase three relief bill (CARES Act) with unanimous consent. The bill totals $2.2 trillion and includes direct support for households ($301 billion), expanded unemployment insurance ($250 billion), credit support to companies to backstop lending facilities by the Federal Reserve ($500 billion), concessionary loans to small businesses ($367 billion), money for hospitals and healthcare providers ($130 billion), emergency education and infrastructure finance ($55 billion), and agriculture assistance ($48 billion). House Democrats are expected to approve the bill Friday, though Democrat leaders indicate they do not expect the vote to pass with unanimous consent and encourage debate. The bill grants greater flexibility to banks in lending to small businesses as well as forbearance for holders of federally-backed mortgages through year-end in cases of pandemic-related financial hardship. The timeline of the relief assistance varies. On one hand, Secretary Mnuchin indicated that immediate direct deposits can be implemented for most individuals, whereas some businesses will not receive relief for months until they adjust for reduced payroll taxes. Congressional leadership on both sides have informed their members that up to two more fiscal packages may be needed during the coming weeks of this pandemic.

Investors Brace for an Unprecedented Rise in US Unemployment Claims

Early data for March is revealing a dramatic economic deterioration around the globe, with this morning’s release of last week’s new filings for unemployment in the US expected to shatter the previous record high. Today’s initial jobless claims report for the week ending March 21 is projected to show a massive spike in filings to 1.64 million, following the 281k reported last week, though some estimates run as high as 3 million. California alone indicated that unemployment claims have risen by 1 million in recent days. For context, the previous peak was 695k in 1982. Analysts are concerned that the second quarter will feature a depression-level contraction, even with fiscal support. This comes after preliminary March readings of US manufacturing and service sector Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) illustrated a moderate retrenchment in the former and a severe contraction of the latter.

Additional Themes

The European Central Bank (ECB) Greatly Enhances Its Monetary Support – Late yesterday, the ECB issued a document indicating that limitations on sovereign bond purchases that threatened to hamper efforts to steady regional markets would not apply to the €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. For context, the ECB’s previous and ongoing quantitative easing (QE) programs restricted sovereign bond purchases by the central bank to no more than one-third of a single country’s debt. When announcing the program last week, ECB President Lagarde pledged that there was “no limit” to her institution’s commitment to preserving the euro, and yesterday’s release indicated that this move was intended to facilitate “smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area.” Sovereign bonds across the EU are rallying this morning, with more stressed peripheral countries like Italy and Greece outperforming, and encouragingly, the euro is rallying versus the dollar.

Daily Dose of Credit Rating Downgrades – Each day brings another set of high-profile cuts to the credit ratings of major companies. Earlier this week, Fitch downgraded Boeing, while S&P relegated Delta Airlines to speculative grade, or “junk,” and cut Ford’s credit rating to junk yesterday. Reports today suggested that Moody’s might cut General Motors to junk as well.

Summary and Price Action Rundown

Global financial markets are struggling to extend their rebound into a second day even as Congress and the White House are set to agree on forceful fiscal measures to cushion the unprecedented economic impact from the pandemic and systemic stresses show signs of easing following aggressive Fed policy action. S&P 500 futures indicate a 0.7% loss at the open, which would partly retrace yesterday’s historic 9.4% rally that reduced the index’s year-to-date downside to 24.3% and its decline from mid-February’s record high to 27.7%. Traders suggest that investor sentiment is finding support from passage of the $2 trillion US fiscal stimulus, more aggressive Fed accommodation, and glimmers of hope from slightly decelerating Italian contagion figures. EU and Asian equities were mixed overnight. Amid continuing investor caution, Treasuries are bid again, with the 10-year yield at 0.82%, while EU sovereign bonds remain steady. Importantly, the dollar is continuing to retreat from multi-year highs. Oil prices are fluctuating above last week’s nearly multi-decade lows, with Brent crude around $26.

Major US Fiscal Support Bolsters Nascent Investor Optimism

Market sentiment remains fragile but incrementally more upbeat today after Congress and the White House agreed overnight on a third-phase $2 trillion US spending bill aimed at supporting households and businesses during the pandemic, though analysts fret that even this massive package may prove to be too little, too late. Overnight, the Senate and the White House reached agreement on the composition of the latest fiscal support bill, which totals around $2 trillion, as expected, and features direct support for households ($1,200 per adult/$500 per child, plus augmented unemployment insurance), credit support to companies ($500 billion), concessionary loans to small businesses ($350 billion), and money for hospitals and healthcare providers ($150 billion). House Democrats are expected to approve the bill, though they had crafted their own version featuring $2.5 trillion in government support for workers and businesses, featuring moratoriums for mortgage, car, and credit card payments, breaks for public housing rent, $10k in student loan forgiveness, and a freeze on foreclosures and evictions. Democrat House leaders have reportedly told their members that up to two more fiscal packages may be needed during the coming weeks of this pandemic. Meanwhile, President Trump’s latest remarks convey anxiousness to restart more normal economic activity, though most of the restrictions and lockdowns are mandated at the state level.

Data Reflects Unprecedented Economic Fallout from the Outbreak

Early readings of activity data for March reveal a dramatic deterioration of business conditions around the globe, with service industries understandably taking the brunt of the pandemic impact. Yesterday’s preliminary March readings of the IHS Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) illustrated how the response to Covid-19 is having divergent effects on US business. For context, PMI readings below 50 denote contraction of activity in the sector. The Manufacturing PMI only declined slightly to 49.2 in March from 50.7 in February, which indicated moderate retrenchment but came in well above estimates of 42.8. However, steep rates of contraction were seen in production and new orders, both of which fell to the greatest extent since 2009. This likely foreshadows further declines in the overall index in April, as business confidence was at a record low level. The relative strength in manufacturing comes in stark contrast to the Services PMI, which plummeted to 39.1 from 49.4, and even undershot the pessimistic market consensus of 42. This is the most rapid contraction in business activity ever recorded and looking ahead, companies do not expect to see any improvement in business over the next 12 months due to Covid-19 uncertainty, representing the most pessimistic outlook ever recorded.

Additional Themes

Signs of Easing Liquidity Strains Following Fed Firepower – The Fed’s aggressive policy measures over recent days and weeks to provide both unprecedented liquidity and direct monetary support for the economy have been yielding some encouraging results. Investment grade credit rallied for the second straight day yesterday, and traders have noted some signs of better market functioning, although high yield debt remains under extreme duress despite a degree of stabilization. Meanwhile, analysts are citing diminished evidence of stress in offshore dollar funding markets, while short-term funding (repo) and interbank markets similarly appear more orderly. Commercial paper spreads have narrowed to some degree as well.

Battle Begins Over Boeing Bailout – Boeing was downgraded yesterday by rating agency Fitch, while President Trump indicated that the White House was preparing to assist the troubled aerospace giant. Boeing CEO Calhoun, however, has indicated that a government equity stake would be unwelcome, preferring credit and liquidity support. Meanwhile, the latest fiscal bill has $50 billion earmarked for loans and loan guarantees to the airline industry.

Summary and Price Action Rundown

Global financial markets are under pressure this morning as Congressional wrangling further delays US fiscal measures aimed at cushioning the unprecedented economic impact from the pandemic over the coming months. S&P 500 futures point to a 2.6% loss at the open, with the downtrend continuing, though at a somewhat more moderate pace so far after registering the largest one-week decline since 2008. Heading into today’s opening bell, the index is down 15.0% over the past week, which puts year-to-date downside at 28.7% and the decline from mid-February’s record high at 31.9%. EU equities are also posting losses this morning while Asian stocks were mixed overnight. Amid the ongoing risk aversion, Treasuries remain bid, with the 10-year yield at 0.81%, while EU sovereign bonds are steadying after rallying significantly late last week following aggressive measures by the European Central Bank on Wednesday. The dollar is strengthening again, re-approaching multi-year highs. Lastly, oil prices are sliding back toward last week’s nearly multi-decade lows, with Brent crude back below $26 per barrel.

Markets Under Pressure as US Fiscal Stimulus Stalls

Risk aversion remains heightened this morning as the third US spending bill aimed at providing government support to households and businesses during the coming peak of the pandemic bogs down in Congress, while analysts ponder whether even this $2 trillion package will prove to be too little, too late. Senate Democrats held up a vote over the weekend on the latest stimulus bill aimed at providing support to workers, companies, and the economy in general during the sharp contraction of activity amid the pandemic response. Citing differences over the bill’s allocations, Democrats are intent on redirecting more dollars toward workers than companies. House Leader Pelosi is working to draft an alternative version, which analysts estimate could be finished midweek. This follows the rapid expansion of the size of the fiscal package last week from $1.3 trillion to roughly $2 trillion last week, as Congress and the Trump administration reacted to the soaring estimates of economic damage of the pandemic and sought to avoid having to immediately start on a fourth stimulus bill. Meanwhile, reports suggested that once the spending bill is finalized, actual disbursement of the checks could take months instead of weeks. With social distancing giving way to more draconian lockdowns in a growing number of areas, alongside a grim tally of new cases and fatality figures, particularly in Italy, investors are struggling to comprehend how much fiscal firepower might be necessary to even partially cushion severe impact of the pandemic on the balance sheets of businesses and households. This gradually unfolding solvency crisis will remain a challenge for the coming months, even as central bank liquidity injections appear to be addressing at least some of the most acute liquidity and systemic stresses.

Investors Monitor Gauges of Systemic Stress for Signs of Easing

With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB), among other global central banks, enacting forceful measures to ease liquidity strains and address systemic risks last week, analysts are highly attuned to nascent signs of improvement. This morning, risk aversion remains extreme, but some gauges of systemic risk are showing signs of stabilization after a week of unprecedented central bank measures. Analysts are citing diminished evidence of stress in offshore dollar funding markets, while short-term funding (repo) markets and interbank markets similarly appear incrementally more orderly. Commercial paper and municipal bonds will be in the spotlight this week as traders suggest that additional Fed support may be needed. Over the weekend, St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari both indicated that the Fed stands ready to do more. For context, the Fed continued to augment its liquidity facilities on Friday, announcing an expansion of its money market mutual fund program to include some municipal bonds and upping the its injections into short-term funding markets to up to $1 trillion per day through month-end. This comes after a series of rapid and forceful easing efforts throughout last week, including a 100 basis point (bps) rate cut to the zero bound, $700 billion in quantitative easing, expanded dollar swap lines with overseas central banks, and liquidity support facilities for commercial paper markets, primary dealers, and money market mutual funds. Other global central banks engaged in extraordinary easing last week as well, including the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Japan.

Additional Themes

Economic Impact Estimates Continue Rising – St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned that US growth in the second quarter could contract by 50% and unemployment could hit 30%.

Oil Prices Deeply Depressed – Some suggestions that US producers could join with OPEC to restrict crude output were met with a cool response from the industry, as dwindling prospects for support have sent oil prices back near the nearly 18-year lows they hit last week.

Summary and Price Action Rundown

Global financial markets rebounded overnight as the historical volatility of earlier this week begins to ebb following bold moves by central banks in the US, EU, and elsewhere, though investors remain focused on the need for fiscal efforts to address the unprecedented economic fallout from the pandemic over the coming months. S&P 500 futures indicate a 3.2% rally at the open, which would build on yesterday’s choppy and hesitant gain. Heading into today’s opening bell, the index is suffering its worst week since 2008, with losses of 11.1% thus far, putting year-to-date downside at 25.4% the decline from mid-February’s record high at 28.9%. EU equities are rebounding 5.1% this morning while Asian stocks posted solid gains overnight. Despite the improving tone in equities, Treasury yields are continuing lower, with the 10-year yield at 0.98%, while EU sovereign bond markets are extending the rally ignited by the European Central Bank’s muscular actions on Wednesday night. Encouragingly, the dollar’s sharp appreciation trend is retracing from yesterday’s multi-year highs. Lastly, oil prices are recovering from their historical midweek swoon, with Brent crude back above $30 per barrel.

Global Central Banks Work Overtime to Calm Panicked Markets

Policymakers have been forced to take increasingly radical steps this week to confront the interlocking public health, economic, and financial crises brought on by the pandemic, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve, among other central banks, stepping in to ease liquidity strains and address systemic risks. This morning, markets are displaying some tentative stabilization after a week of unprecedented central bank measures to quell the most acute stresses. After intervening in bond markets to stem the rout in Italian debt, the ECB announced a €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) on Wednesday night, with ECB President Lagarde stating that there are “no limits” to their commitment to steady EU financial markets, echoing her predecessor Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” stance that helped quell the EU debt crisis in 2012. The PEPP greatly ups the ECB’s firepower and will not be bound by the same strictures as prior ECB quantitative easing programs, with Greek debt being eligible alongside other loosened constraints. The Fed had come in on Sunday night with its own “shock and awe” measures, cutting rates 100 basis point (bps) to the zero bound and announcing a $700 billion quantitative easing program, alongside other efforts to boost dollar liquidity in the US and overseas. Over subsequent days, the Fed announced liquidity support facilities for commercial paper markets, primary dealers, and money market mutual funds, while expanding its dollar swap lines with overseas central banks in an effort to address the offshore dollar liquidity crunch. Other global central banks engaged in extraordinary easing this week, including the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Japan.

Investors Ponder Unprecedented Economic Damage from the Pandemic

The severe impact of the pandemic is unfolding in dramatically worsening growth, business confidence, and labor statistics from around the world, with yesterday’s deteriorating US unemployment data just the tip of the iceberg. The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits, known as initial unemployment claims, spiked by 70K to 281K in the week ended March 14, with the tally well above consensus expectations of 220K and clearly attributable to the impact the outbreak. This was up from 211K in the previous week, which is the level where claims have stayed for much of the last three years. However, worse is still to come. By tracking initial claims being filed at the state level this week, economists are warning that the claims data released next Thursday could show that as many as 2 million Americans newly filed for unemployment insurance, a completely unprecedented rise in claims. This comes as economists continue to downgrade their growth outlooks, with a global recession now a “base case” for a number of them and others predicting that the recession has already arrived, while the second quarter is at risk of registering a “depression” level plunge in growth.

Additional Themes

Oil Prices Bounce from Nearly 20-Year Lows – Oil prices are jumping again today after plumbing roughly 18-year lows midweek, as traders noted President Trump’s remarks yesterday indicating that his administration is working to resolve the ongoing oil price war between Saudi and Russia, although reports this morning suggest that Russia is not ready to back down. For context, the precipitous sell-off has been driven by expectations that the pandemic will crush global demand for crude, with the price war that began late last month between Saudi Arabia and Russia compounding the pressure.

Longer Duration Treasuries Being Considered – Reports yesterday indicated that the Trump administration is again considering ultra-long Treasury bonds, at 25 and 50-year tenors. The cool reaction from market participants to similar proposals over recent years has been a key factor in the Treasury shelving them, but the current circumstances might see the stars aligning.