Category: Five Minute Macro

Debt ceiling negotiations continue to drive risk appetite while recession and inflation concerns persist. The Fed continues to push back on market rate cut expectations and questions on China’s growth outlook enters the fray this week.

The Fed meeting this week is front and center on investors mind’s this week, while recession concerns remain, and earnings season continues. JP Morgan bought First Republic from the FDIC and the Debt Limit fight continues.

Recession concerns remain ahead of this week’s 1Q GDP report, while earnings include bellwethers. Markets continue to price in Fed cuts later this year as the debt ceiling fight intensifies and inflation data continues to cool.

 

A Fed pause and eventual cut remains the main question driving markets as earnings season enters the discussion. Inflation and growth concerns move down a few spots while debt limit concerns enter the fray.

OPEC has put the Fed over a proverbial barrel with their surprise output cut, which has put into question last week’s signs of cooling inflation and raised investor’s concerns about growth prospect. Oil has reentered the top five while last week’s number one, the stresses in US and EU banking sector, has fallen to the bottom as policy responses have calmed fears.

US and EU banking stresses and Fed rate path remine the main drivers of markets, while investors ponder growth prospects. Inflationary pressures show signs of easing while crypto stages a comeback.

Investors wary ahead of key inflation report as the Fed slows pace of hikes and hopes of a soft landing rise following a strong jobs report. A mixed 4Q earnings season wraps up and a surprise BOJ succession plan round out the top five this week.

 

The path of Fed tightening remains the driving factor for markets as inflation shows signs of cooling and global growth slows. Investors prepare for fourth quarter earnings season and Chinese assets rally on a major policy shift.

The pace of Fed tightening remains the main driver of global markets, while inflation remains the focus of the Fed and other central banks. However, recession fears are beginning to replace inflation fears as the tightening is slowing growth, which is pushing energy prices to yearly low levels. Finally, Chinese assets have been supported by a shift in Covid policy.

Hopes the Fed will dial down its tightening pace are driving market sentiment and weak tech earnings don’t stop overall markets from rallying. Global recession fears increase as data worsens and inflation shows signs of easing. Finally, Chinese assets struggle as Xi asserts control.